中国人电煤的采(cai)购(gou)售价(jia)指标（CECI）建(jian)制商(shang)务会议室公布的的《CECI指(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)标(biao)深入(ru)分析周报(bao)》（2025年第21期）屏(ping)幕上(shang)(shang)显示，CECI沿海地(di)区(qu)指(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)标(biao)中高烧量值煤种(zhong)期货(huo)签(qian)单(dan)费(fei)用(yong)大幅度(du)飙(biao)升。曹妃甸(dian)指(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)标(biao)大幅度(du)上(shang)(shang)行。进(jin)口量指(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)标(biao)高烧量值煤种(zhong)期货(huo)签(qian)单(dan)价(jia)再(zai)继续上(shang)(shang)行。CECI购(gou)进(jin)主管人指(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)标(biao)不断十一月(yue)期处在(zai)膨胀时(shi)(shi)间(jian)(jian)间(jian)(jian)隔(ge)车(che)，分项(xiang)工(gong)程指(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)标(biao)中，除水运(yun)分指(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)标(biao)处在(zai)扩大时(shi)(shi)间(jian)(jian)间(jian)(jian)隔(ge)车(che)外，其(qi)它分指(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)标(biao)均(jun)处在(zai)膨胀时(shi)(shi)间(jian)(jian)间(jian)(jian)隔(ge)车(che)，除存货(huo)分指(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)标(biao)同比增长(zhang)率(lv)增长(zhang)率(lv)飙(biao)升外，其(qi)它分指(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)标(biao)均(jun)同比增长(zhang)率(lv)增长(zhang)率(lv)飙(biao)升。

一、市场情况综述

然(ran)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)导热(re)(re)油(you)(you)生育那(nei)部(bu)分，湖(hu)北(bei)省大(da)那(nei)部(bu)分各地(di)温(wen)(wen)度随时气(qi)温(wen)(wen)回升，华中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等地(di)区人们聚集(ji)集(ji)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)集(ji)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)热(re)(re)力(li)已经停此，占(zhan)多(duo)数然(ran)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)导热(re)(re)油(you)(you)火(huo)(huo)力(li)发(fa)(fa)电(dian)池储电(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)、集(ji)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)热(re)(re)力(li)量(liang)(liang)(liang)、电(dian)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)日耗(hao)和入厂煤(mei)(mei)(mei)量(liang)(liang)(liang)去(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)涨(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)率(lv)(lv)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)涨(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)均保(bao)持骤(zhou)降。导热(re)(re)油(you)(you)库存(cun)量(liang)(liang)(liang)除黑龙江地(di)区去(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)涨(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)率(lv)(lv)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)涨(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)骤(zhou)降外，华中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)、华南、南方城市等地(di)区导热(re)(re)油(you)(you)去(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)涨(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)率(lv)(lv)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)涨(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)均差异方面增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)涨(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)。会按照中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)电(dian)联燃(ran)油(you)(you)测算(suan)资(zi)料统运算(suan)据(ju)，上期(qi)(qi)(qi)归(gui)入供电(dian)产业燃(ran)油(you)(you)测算(suan)资(zi)料测算(suan)的火(huo)(huo)力(li)发(fa)(fa)电(dian)集(ji)团公司(si)然(ran)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)导热(re)(re)油(you)(you)日访(fang)问(wen)(wen)量(liang)(liang)(liang)火(huo)(huo)力(li)发(fa)(fa)电(dian)池储电(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)去(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)涨(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)率(lv)(lv)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)涨(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)极(ji)(ji)(ji)大(da)减(jian)(jian)(jian)轻(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)5.8%，去(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)涨(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)率(lv)(lv)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)涨(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)极(ji)(ji)(ji)大(da)减(jian)(jian)(jian)轻(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)4.1%。日访(fang)问(wen)(wen)量(liang)(liang)(liang)集(ji)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)热(re)(re)力(li)量(liang)(liang)(liang)去(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)涨(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)率(lv)(lv)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)涨(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)极(ji)(ji)(ji)大(da)减(jian)(jian)(jian)轻(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)16.6%，去(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)涨(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)率(lv)(lv)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)涨(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)涨(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)20.3%。日访(fang)问(wen)(wen)量(liang)(liang)(liang)电(dian)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)耗(hao)量(liang)(liang)(liang)极(ji)(ji)(ji)大(da)减(jian)(jian)(jian)轻(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)6.2%，去(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)涨(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)率(lv)(lv)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)涨(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)极(ji)(ji)(ji)大(da)减(jian)(jian)(jian)轻(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)3.2%。在其(qi)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)，海(hai)路输送导热(re)(re)油(you)(you)日访(fang)问(wen)(wen)量(liang)(liang)(liang)耗(hao)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)量(liang)(liang)(liang)去(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)涨(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)率(lv)(lv)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)涨(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)极(ji)(ji)(ji)大(da)减(jian)(jian)(jian)轻(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)6.3%，去(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)涨(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)率(lv)(lv)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)涨(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)极(ji)(ji)(ji)大(da)减(jian)(jian)(jian)轻(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)9.3%；日访(fang)问(wen)(wen)量(liang)(liang)(liang)入厂煤(mei)(mei)(mei)量(liang)(liang)(liang)极(ji)(ji)(ji)大(da)减(jian)(jian)(jian)轻(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)3.3%，去(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)涨(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)率(lv)(lv)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)涨(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)极(ji)(ji)(ji)大(da)减(jian)(jian)(jian)轻(qing)(qing)(qing)(qing)9.6%。然(ran)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)导热(re)(re)油(you)(you)存(cun)煤(mei)(mei)(mei)99520万(wan)(wan)吨，去(qu)(qu)(qu)(qu)年(nian)(nian)(nian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)(qi)(qi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)涨(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)率(lv)(lv)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)涨(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)涨(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)450万(wan)(wan)吨。

中(zhong)国(guo)新疆原(yuan)煤主制造地(di)环节，大环节煤业(ye)稳定(ding)顺利生孩子，国(guo)有土(tu)地(di)控(kong)股煤业(ye)发运以保供及内部结构(gou)产(chan)(chan)生应以，各别(bie)民营化(hua)煤业(ye)分手后(hou)钢材涨价(jia)(jia)，布(bu)局新疆原(yuan)煤产(chan)(chan)生小范(fan)围震(zhen)荡(dang)。近(jin)期的煤电(dian)企业(ye)的销量仍(reng)超过2019例数(shu)，非电(dian)领域(yu)仅稳定(ding)极(ji)富钢需采(cai)购流程，出站(zhan)口和国(guo)有土(tu)地(di)控(kong)股集團购入产(chan)(chan)品报(bao)价(jia)(jia)随时上涨，进出口采(cai)购商和的行(xing)业(ye)市场操作(zuo)者徘徊(huai)情感(gan)较浓，的行(xing)业(ye)市场成交(jiao)的氛围萧(xiao)条，外盘产(chan)(chan)品报(bao)价(jia)(jia)持继(ji)小范(fan)围回落(luo)。

海(hai)港(gang)国(guo)际(ji)(ji)贸易卖(mai)场问题，受铁(tie)路(lu)FBA货(huo)物物流费用实惠、空气(qi)湿度回落(luo)、空调机(ji)组检查维修等诸多基(ji)本要(yao)素损害，调为量产品(pin)稍低一些于调进量，海(hai)港(gang)库存积压箱(xiang)顶振动正常运作。在现(xian)货(huo)平台国(guo)际(ji)(ji)贸易卖(mai)场定(ding)价(jia)全(quan)面、明确跌至年终长协价(jia)的现(xian)状下(xia)，大部分国(guo)际(ji)(ji)销售商对(dui)后势看空腔(qiang)态弱于，最新报价(jia)持续不断(duan)小量度再(zai)降，一些消费终端中小企业询货充(chong)分性(xing)升降，但(dan)仍以差价(jia)购进偏重于，真实限(xian)价(jia)量通常情况下，现货平台限(xian)价(jia)定价(jia)小量度调整。

综和看你，南方(fang)暖气(qi)季(ji)总体终(zhong)止，电煤具(ju)体需求(qiu)转淡，烧煤导热油电煤日耗同比增长传承向下。电煤供求(qiu)关系(xi)对应(ying)直筒(tong)裤，中中上(shang)游存货重压(ya)很大，行(xing)(xing)业上(shang)煤真实出单量应(ying)该，坑口和海港口行(xing)(xing)业上(shang)煤价仍始终(zhong)维持劣势自(zi)动运行(xing)(xing)。

二、CECI指数分析

CECI沿海指数5500千卡/千克、5000千卡/千克现货成交价较上期分别下降4元/吨、1元/吨。从样本情况看，5500千卡/千克、5000千卡/千克规格品现货成交价样本价格区间分别为682-687元/吨、601-604元/吨，且从成交时间看，多分布在本周前半段。从样本热值分布看，4500千卡/千克、5000千卡/千克、5500千卡/千克样本在总量中占比分别为30.7％、48.3％、21.1％。

图3  CECI沿海指数综合价走势图

CECI曹妃甸指数5500千卡/千克、5000千卡/千克和4500千卡/千克平均价格分别为686.4元/吨、597.6元/吨和519.8元/吨，电煤现货价格小幅下行，各规格品本周价格平均值比上周分别下降6.6元/吨、5.6元/吨和4.4元/吨。现货交易平均数量有所减少，其中5500千卡/千克、5000千卡/千克数量略有减少，4500千卡/千克样本数量基本持平。

图4  CECI曹妃甸指数走势图

CECI进口指数到岸标煤单价860元/吨，较上期持平。现货价格中，各规格品热值进口煤现货价格涨跌不一，其中太仓港（灵便型）3200千卡/千克价格环比上涨6元/吨，广州港（巴拿马型）4600千卡/千克价格环比下降8元/吨。印尼HBA新政逐渐趋于稳定，但受斋月及雨季的影响，外矿对低热值煤种报价多数保持坚挺。国内沿海电厂继续释放远期5月份交货的招标采购，尤其华南地区电厂较集中的电力集团连续批量发布采购低热值印尼煤招标，整体投标价较上期小幅下降。近期进口煤市场对澳煤、俄罗斯煤询货略有增加，但仍以低价采购为主，进口高热值煤价格缺乏有力支撑，现货价格继续偏弱运行。

表1  CECI进口指数

CECI采购经理人指数连续11期处于收缩区间。其中，供给分指数连续11期处于收缩区间，表明电煤供给量继续下降，降幅有所扩大。需求分指数连续11期处于收缩区间，表明电煤需求量继续下降，降幅有所扩大。库存分指数连续11期处于收缩区间，表明电煤库存量继续下降，降幅有所收窄。价格分指数连续9期处于收缩区间，表明电煤价格继续下降，降幅有所扩大。航运分指数连续3期处于扩张区间，表明电煤航运价格继续增加，增幅有所收窄。

表2  CECI采购经理人指数

三、相关信息和建议

按照(zhao)其国(guo)务院(yuan)会(hui)议(yi)室厅供应链(lian)管(guan)理(li)货(huo)品运(yun)输(shu)管(guan)理(li)保(bao)通保(bao)畅工作中老板小组长会(hui)议(yi)室室监测(ce)器统(tong)(tong)计(ji)报(bao)表统(tong)(tong)计(ji)数据，三(san)月10日-三(san)月16日，云(yun)南(nan)省各省货(huo)品运(yun)输(shu)管(guan)理(li)供应链(lian)管(guan)理(li)货(huo)品运(yun)输(shu)管(guan)理(li)逐步运(yun)营(ying)，但(dan)其中：國(guo)家农村(cun)公路总(zong)共使用(yong)运(yun)输(shu)管(guan)理(li)货(huo)品7833.2万桶，环比发(fa)展率(lv)同比扩大(da)1.98%；云(yun)南(nan)省各省髙速农村(cun)公路总(zong)共使用(yong)小货(huo)车通过5247.2万辆(liang)，环比发(fa)展率(lv)同比扩大(da)3.45%。

利用的国家核算局数据资料，2025年1-111月份(fen)，各(ge)省煤质产能76535万吨(dun)，环比涨幅率(lv)涨幅7.7%，增(zeng)长速率(lv)比前年1111月份(fen)变(bian)快(kuai)3.4个月环比；规(gui)上工业(ye)品发充(chong)电电流1492一亿Kw时，环比涨幅率(lv)走(zou)低1.3%。

依照地(di)区(qu)能源开发局数据资料，2025年1-5月份，全当今(jin)社会耗电(dian)池寿命当年度(du)15564亿(yi)kw时，环比上升(sheng)上升(sheng)1.3%。从(cong)分领域群耗电(dian)看，一(yi)、二(er)、三领域群和(he)城乡统(tong)筹大家现在(zai)的生活耗电(dian)池寿命各分为环比上升(sheng)上升(sheng)8.2%、0.9%、3.6%和(he)0.1%。

只能(neng)根据(ju)中(zhong)电(dian)联电(dian)力设备餐饮(yin)行业锅炉(lu)燃(ran)料数(shu)(shu)(shu)据(ju)分(fen)析，截止到6月(yue)14日(ri)，推(tui)行数(shu)(shu)(shu)据(ju)分(fen)析的风能(neng)发电(dian)投(tou)资(zi)集团烧煤火(huo)(huo)(huo)火(huo)(huo)(huo)电(dian)站上月(yue)累(lei)积(ji)风能(neng)发电(dian)池寿(shou)命(ming)头(tou)年(nian)例(li)(li)(li)数(shu)(shu)(shu)降低(di)4%，年(nian)初累(lei)积(ji)风能(neng)发电(dian)池寿(shou)命(ming)头(tou)年(nian)例(li)(li)(li)数(shu)(shu)(shu)降低(di)8%。烧煤火(huo)(huo)(huo)火(huo)(huo)(huo)电(dian)站耗煤量上月(yue)累(lei)积(ji)头(tou)年(nian)例(li)(li)(li)数(shu)(shu)(shu)降低(di)4.1%，年(nian)初累(lei)积(ji)头(tou)年(nian)例(li)(li)(li)数(shu)(shu)(shu)降低(di)7%。烧煤火(huo)(huo)(huo)火(huo)(huo)(huo)电(dian)站煤炭(tan)能(neng)源销量盘(pan)(pan)点(dian)过于(yu)头(tou)年(nian)例(li)(li)(li)数(shu)(shu)(shu)450万吨，销量盘(pan)(pan)点(dian)用于(yu)日(ri)子较(jiao)本(ben)年(nian)例(li)(li)(li)数(shu)(shu)(shu)身高1.8天(tian)。

近期，全国多地陆续停止供暖，发电、供暖用煤进入淡季，转入检修的电厂机组开始增多，大部分沿海电厂机组负荷较低。非电企业复工及基建加快，非电耗煤量有所提升，但在长协煤供应及高库存支撑下，整体市场采购需求释放仍显不足。北方港调出量与调入量基本持平，港口去库速度依旧缓慢，其中秦皇岛港库存长时间保持在700万吨以上的高位水平，疏港压力较大。在坑口和港口库存双双高企压力之下，煤矿存在被动减产可能，同时，进口低卡煤价格倒挂也可能对内贸形成一定支撑。综合判断，短期动力煤市场价格将缓慢下跌继续探底。建议电力企业关注后期港口去库进度和水泥等非电煤需求释放情况，维持合理库存。

     

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